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(April 1, 2022) Endgame dynamics in Russia's war

Five weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the tables are turning dramatically amidst the fog of war. As the Ukrainians have stood their ground better than anticipated, the Russians have been put on the back foot. The centre of gravity in the war now appears to be shifting eastward away from Kyiv towards Crimea and the Donbas region. As endgame discussions emerge, all major parties in the conflict are behoved to arrive at a viable settlement and common denominator without overplaying their hands.

At the outset of Russia's military advances into Ukraine on Feb 24, the odds were stacked against Kyiv and President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former entertainment figure with a low popularity rating at the time. Many understandably thought the mighty and battle-hardened Russian army with a larger force and superior weaponry would overrun Kyiv in a matter of days. Russia's war aims in the beginning seemed set on the capture of Kyiv and the ouster of Mr Zelensky.